Former Malawi President Peter Mutharika seems likely to stage an unprecedented return to state house, a poll has revealed. According to the results of the poll which polled nearly 40,000 people, Mutharika might stage his own Trumpian victory without even needing an alliance.
If the results of the poll are anything to go by, Malawians seem to have a fond nostalgia for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leader while at the same time they have developed a distaste for current President Lazarus Chakwera.
For a week, Malawi24 run an open online poll on both our Facebook and Twitter accounts asking Malawians whom they will be voting for in the September election. The poll garnered over 38,000 individual responses in that period.
From the start of the poll, Mutharika took a lead with Chakwera coming second. However, as days passed, Chakwera was overtaken by Dalitso Kabambe, candidate for his former alliance partner UTM Party.
As at the close of the poll at midnight of Friday, 28 February, Peter Mutharika emerged a clear favourite among those who participated, scoring a strong 62%. Meanwhile, Dalitso Kabambe of the UTM Party who dumped the DPP, scored 23%. Current president Lazarus Chakwera scored a measly 10%.
On Facebook, Mutharika secured votes from 23,553 people, whereas Chakwera only managed to win over 3,858 votes from individual participants.
Apart from the 38,027 votes that the poll attracted, there were 3,700 comments on the post. Most of the people who commented lamented a myriad of problems rocking the nation as the reason for their choice of an opposition candidate against the incumbent.
“We gave Chakwera a chance but with the way he has failed us, it is better to go back. Adad omwewo (better to return to APM), “ commented a Facebook user who voted for APM in the poll.
Another user lamented the hyperinflation that Malawi is currently experiencing as well as the shortage of foreign currency that was negatively impacting his business as a reason for preferring to vote for Mutharika. He reported that he had voted for Chakwera in the previous election.
However, another user who voted for Dalitso Kabambe chided a return to APM as unrealistic while continuing with Chakwera was equally dismissed as another impossibility.
“Onsewa atilephera (both APM and Chakwera have failed us), the only person who can take us forward is DK,” a comment read.
For most MCP and Chakwera sympathisers however, they took to dismissing the poll as inaccurate with most suggesting that the real voters are not on Facebook.
“Mavoti a Chakwera ali busy ndi khasu pano, alibe nthawi yovota pa Facebook (Chakwera’s vvotrs are farming, they don’t participate in Facebook opinion polls),” wrote one before voting for Chakwera on the poll to contribute to the MCP leaders final tally of 3858 votes from the slightly over 38000 opinions polled.
A researcher at a local think tank who opted for anonymity said that although the poll cannot be taken as the absolute reality of the September 2025 situation, it offered important pointers into the mood of the nation.
“What obtains on Facebook is usually what is circulating in our society. It is true that not all those who participated in the poll will vote in September but one cannot dismiss that the poll is reflective of the sentiments on the ground,” she said.
Further, she pointed out that the poll is in line with protests that were witnessed in the week where traders have been protesting the rise in prices of things as well as failures of businesses with some calling for the removal of President Lazarus Chakwera.
“For MCP supporters to simply dismiss the poll as not reflective of Malawian voters, that is also not true. In the week we saw vendors in Lilongwe and Blantyre taking to the streets, all that is a sign of discontent with the leadership. Are those also not voters?,” she asked before advising that if Chakwera and his party have to stand a chance in the September poll then they need to put their house in order.
Another opinion poll that was conducted in 2024 by the research think tank Afrobarometer had placed Mutharika in the leading role with Chakwera becoming second. The poll had been dismissed by the MCP leadership as lacking credibility having polled only 1500 voting Malawians.
The Malawi24 opinion poll marks the first time in the country’s history that an opinion poll has generated nearly 50,000 votes from individual participants. Another key difference from previous opinion polls, especially those conducted on social media, is that each person was only allowed to vote for one candidate.
This publication has scheduled three more opinion polls in the lead-up to the 2025 presidential elections in September to help gain insights into the voting patterns of Malawians.
