Malawi economy to grow by up to 5% – IMF

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Gondwe

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Malawi’s economy will grow by up to 5 percent in 2018.

IMF Mission Chief for Malawi Pritha Mitra said on Wednesday that economic growth of 3 to 5 percent is expected in 2018, followed by a rise to 6-7 percent over the medium term as the country continues to recover from two years of drought.

Gondwe
Gondwe (L) and Mitra at a news conference.

“Growth will be supported by enhanced infrastructure investment and social services as well as an improved business environment, which will boost confidence and unlock the economy’s potential for higher, more broad-based, and resilient growth and employment,” said Mitra.An IMF team led by Mitra visited Malawi from January 31-February 14, 2018 to conduct the 2018 Article IV Consultation and hold discussions with the Malawian authorities on a program supported by the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement.

The team met with Minister of Finance Goodall Gondwe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) Dalitso Kabambe and other senior government.

In a statement on Wednesday, Mitra noted that Malawi has failed to control its budget during the 2017/18 financial year as revenue shortfalls and expenditure overruns, including the bailout of maize purchase loans by Admarc, exerted significant pressures on the budget.

Mitra also expressed concern over Malawi’s rising debts and warned that for Malawi’s risk of debt distress to remain moderate, government should among other things rigorously prioritise the pipeline of projects based on such considerations as credible cost-benefit analyses.

She however said that government will deploy strong remedial measures to address the widening of the budget deficit in the current fiscal year and shift to a slightly positive primary balance in the next fiscal year.

“They are committed to irrevocably close out the arrears clearance program. The government will continue enhancing transparency in the budget process, strengthening the medium-term budgetary framework and cash management, and routinizing bank reconciliation.

“Monetary policy will focus on entrenching disinflation. It will aim to contain the inflation rate within single digits by end-2018 while keeping real interest rates positive,” she said.
The staff-level agreement and 2018 Article IV could be considered by the IMF Executive Board in April 2018.

During a joint news conference with Mitra, Minister of Finance, Economic Planning and Development Goodall Gondwe said Malawi’s deficit is projected at K183 billion against the earlier forecast of K195 billion.

He added that government has revised the development budget and would now only prioritise about 25 projects that will be completed by June this year, including those wholly funded by donors.

The staff-level agreement and 2018 Article IV could be considered by the IMF Executive Board in April 2018.