The next rainy season could bring fresh uncertainty to thousands of farming families, with rainfall expected to decline in some parts of the country.
The 2026/27 rainfall outlook points to a tougher season for some parts of Malawi, with the South and Centre facing a higher risk of below-normal rains.
The outlook, released by the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS), warns of a delayed start to the rains, prolonged dry spells and increased rainfall variability, particularly in the Southern and Central regions.
According to the forecast, rainfall onset is expected to be significantly delayed in the South, slightly delayed in the Centre and normal in the North. Across most of the country, established rainfall is expected from around mid-December.
The department says the 2026/27 season could last between 100 and 120 days in most southern and central areas, compared with between 110 and 140 days in most northern areas.
DCCMS says the combination of below-normal rainfall and intense heat could have serious consequences for agriculture.
The conditions could shorten the effective growing season, reduce soil moisture and water availability, and increase the risk of poor crop establishment.
The department warns that agricultural production is likely to suffer, with maize production potentially declining significantly from the previous season if mitigation measures are not implemented.
The outlook also projects a 0.2 to 0.3-metre decline in Lake Malawi water levels.
While the South and Centre face a greater risk of dry conditions, the Northern Region is expected to experience comparatively better rainfall.
However, DCCMS cautions that periods of above-normal rainfall in the North could increase the risk of waterlogging, flooding and soil erosion in some areas.
For October to December 2026, normal to below-normal rainfall is expected across most of southern and central Malawi, while much of the North is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
For January to March 2027, below-normal rainfall is expected over the South and Centre, while normal to above-normal rainfall is forecast for most of the North, except Mzimba and parts of Rumphi, where normal to below-normal rainfall is expected.
The department says El Niño has already developed, with climate models indicating a high chance over 90 percent of a strong El Niño developing and persisting throughout the rainfall season.
El Niño is associated with unusual warming of waters in the eastern central equatorial Pacific Ocean and historically tends to bring below average rainfall to Southern Africa.
DCCMS says similar strong El Niño conditions occurred during the 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16 and 2023/24 seasons.
The department is therefore urging early preparedness and timely climate informed decisions, particularly in the Southern and Central regions.
