The Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) says there will be moderate to strong El Nino conditions and normal rainfall for a significant portion of the 2023/2024 rainfall season.
The service said this in the 2023/2024 National Seasonal Rainfall Forecast released today.
DCCMS has also indicated that it is closely monitoring the conditions that will shape the 2023/2024 rainfall season.
“Global climate models are projecting moderate to strong El Nino conditions for a significant portion of the 2023/2024 rainfall season. El Nino is characterized by unusual warming of waters in the Eastern Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean and typically leads to drier conditions over Southern Africa, potentially including southern Malawi,” said the service.
The department has further highlighted that the 2023/2024 rainfall seasonal forecast as produced by climate experts in Malawi foretells that between October to December, it is expected that there will be normal total rainfall amounts over most areas of the country. However, there is high likelihood of below- normal rainfall in November, particularly in southern and northern Malawi.
“January to March 2024, Malawians should anticipate normal to below- normal total rainfall amounts over most areas with possibility of above normal rainfall in January,” said DCCMS
The weather service has added that there is a higher chance of prolonged dry spells in the month of February, 2024.
DCCMS has since asked all stakeholders to seek advice from the relevant ministries in order to better apply the forecast in their respective fields.