Africa faces a projected 86-million-tonne fuel shortfall by 2040, with the ongoing Iran war exposing the continent’s dangerous reliance on vulnerable import chokepoints, the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) warned Thursday.
In a report released in Nairobi, the pan-African financial institution highlighted that Africa imports over 70% of its refined fuel and $230 billion worth of essential goods annually.
This dependence is projected to rise from 74 million tonnes in 2023 to 86 million tonnes in less than two decades.
The conflict in the Middle East has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical conduit for one-fifth of global fuel transport, leaving import-dependent countries in East Africa facing critical shortages.
“We’ve all learned about the Strait of Hormuz this year, and it’s not the only chokepoint,” said AFC Chief Economist Rita Babihuga-Nsanze at the report launch.
The crisis extends beyond fuel to fertilizers, where the region also faces shortages due to high import volumes from the Gulf.
Babihuga-Nsanze described this vulnerability as “strange,” noting that Africa holds 80% of the world’s phosphate reserves, a key fertilizer source, yet produces only 20% of the global supply.
“There’s a real opportunity for Africa to step in the gap here,” she added.
To address these deficits, the report calls for the development of new energy hubs and improved performance of existing infrastructure.
Babihuga-Nsanze pointed to specific inefficiencies, such as Zambian dams ill-equipped for new drought conditions and two gigawatts of wasted Angolan hydropower that is not connected to the regional grid.
Source: AFP
