‘When Political Scientists speak, listen’ — Analyst defends survey results after projections confirm Mutharika lead

Political analyst Wonderful Mkhutche has urged Malawians to take scientific surveys more seriously, after projections appeared to confirm that Arthur Peter Mutharika is leading the 2025 presidential race.

Malawi24’s later electoral projection painted a clearer picture, placing Mutharika at 55.6 percent and Chakwera at 34.8 percent, though some critics accused the publication of favoring the Mutharika and DPP.

Additionally, IPOR survey in early September placed Mutharika at 41 percent against Lazarus McCarthy Chakwera’s 31 percent, with 11 percent undecided and 5 percent refusing to answer. Critics were quick to dismiss the findings, citing a “small sample size” and arguing that surveys do not reflect the ground reality.

Writing on his Facebook page, Mkhutche said the current results to be confirmed by MEC today which places Mutharika at over 52 percent, show why dismissing scientific surveys is misguided.

“Next time, ndisadzamvenso kuti sample size yachepa when a similar survey is out from IPOR or Afrobarometer,” he wrote on Facebook. “When political scientists speak, listen. Ati, ‘Ma professor zawo ndi za mkalasi. Ife ndi pa ground’. Tione nawo ma vote a pa ground wo.”

On several occasions, the MCP maintained that it was unfazed by the opinion polls projecting a DPP victory, with the party’s secretary general Richard Chimwendo Banda accusing the DPP of sponsoring the surveys.