It is interesting to note that many Malawians often resort to changing a regime whenever they are confronted with excruciating social and economic problems.
You will recall that in 2019, many Malawians staged nationwide looting and destructive demonstrations that aimed at ousting Peter Mutharika’s regime in favour of Tonse Alliance movement which was led by Dr. Lazarus Chakwera and Dr. Saulos Chilima.
Obviously, most Malawians nursed high unrealistic expectations when indeed Reverend Dr. Lazarus Chakwera took over the mantle of leadership in 2020. Interestingly, three years down the line, the very same Malawians who were at the forefront supporting Chakwera and Chilima are regretting that they made a wrong choice. Others are openly declaring that Peter Mutharika must come back on the driving seat.
The truth of the matter is that a change of government that does achieve the desired results is utterly futile.
In fact, in Malawi, a regime change is simply a change of beneficiaries who can further loot our government coffers. This is in congruent the adage that stipulates that the more things change, the more they become the same.
For example, everyone is aware that the Tonse Alliance promised to stamp out corruption once they are voted into power.
Truth be told, it is very pathetic that corruption has reached unprecedented levels under Chakwera and under Chakwera’s tutelage and there is currently no political will to contain this vice. Instead, President Chakwera is personally promoting corruption by pardoning corruption convict, Uladi Mussa and corruption suspect, Dr. Bakili Muluzi.
It is against this background that most Malawians are wondering if there will be a change of government in 2025.
Analysing the current Malawi’s political landscape, it is logically sound to conclude that it will not be easy to dislodge the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) government from power.
Firstly, the main opposition party, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is the weakest link. It is widely agreed that a house that is divided against itself cannot stand. Internal leadership wrangles between Peter Mutharika’s camp and Mr. Kondwani Nankhumwa’s followers provide the ruling MCP government an added political score.
Secondly, the Chakwera regime has captured all sectors of government machinery.
For instance, most of the judges who presided over the controversial 2019 presidential elections case have been promoted to be Justices of the Supreme Court of Appeal.
With rampant judge shopping in our judicial system, any electoral complaints to the courts will highly likely hit a hard rock.
It is therefore highly recommended that the main opposition party, DPP, must win 2025 with a landslide otherwise it shouldn’t expect that the courts can nullify 2025 presidential elections in its favour even in the presence of proven electoral irregularities.
Thirdly, President Chakwera has all government resources at his disposal.
For instance, there are allegations that the Chief Executive Officer of the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC), Mr. Andrew Mpesi, is an openly MCP sympathiser.
Furthermore, the current unwarranted transfer of District Commissioners (DCs) raises eyebrows since DCs are usually hired to manage elections at a district level.
Lastly but not least, it will be foolhardy for MCP to rule for only five years after being in opposition for 26 years.
In fact, Chakwera’s regime is doing its best to stay in power despite the economic hardships my fellow Malawians are facing.
For instance, the results of by elections in Mtiya ward in Zomba shows that MCP is busy laying political structures across the country.
Even though, DPP ward councillor’s candidate, Maxwell Finias, won the elections, the gap of votes between the DPP candidate and MCP candidate was very small.
In conclusion, a change of government in 2025 may only be possible if the main opposition party quickly puts its house in order otherwise the MCP government has more added advantage of staying in power.