After losing elections in 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2014, Malawi Congress Party will lose again in 2019 because of Reverend Chakwera’s weak and dictatorial leadership. This is the truth but painful.
Let me start by disappointing all those who think this political analysis is propaganda. Unfortunately, this analysis is based on facts. It is truth and well galvanised political reality. Therefore, stop reading now if you hate truth and reality. Do not read the following paragraphs because they will tell you the truth.
The truth is that all the local and international opinion polls have consistently said MCP will lose. AFROBAROMETER, IPOR, EIU and all internally commissioned reports such as the secret Catholic Bishops Report all agree that Peter Mutharika will win and maintain Government.
The reality inside Malawi Congress Party as we remain with 6 weeks to vote is as follows:
MCP is broke
There is currently no money in the MCP camp and Parliamentary Candidates are struggling to raise funds for campaign. Most of the candidates are frustrated with Chakwera and they basically don’t want him to continue as the MCP leader after the elections.
One research shows that most of the candidates are campaigning for themselves for their parliamentary vote. They are not campaigning for Chakwera because they literally want him to fail so that they can easily remove him at the first Convention after elections.
Chakwera is Selfish
The main reason why MCP is broke is because its funders lost confidence in Reverend Chakwera especially because he started by channelling party funding into his personal accounts. It is only Simbi Phiri who is funding (criminal?) cyber activities for Chakwera.
Chakwera’s selfishness has cost MCP a heavy political fortune. Most of the veterans who know and understand MCP politics are practically disengaged from the party.
Chakwera fired MCP
It is also a fact that Chakwera is the MCP leader who fired MCP. The President fired his own Party. In his voracious hunger for power, Chakwera kicked out district governors and regional governors who have kept the party for 25 years MCP has been in Opposition. These are the guardians of the party.
Further, Chakwera fired every experienced leadership of the party in the Primary Elections. Chakwera kicked aside the Foloma Mwales, the Njobvuyalemas and the Belekanyamas (he won after fighting Chakwera and his scheme). These are the people who kept the party before Chakwera came in 2013.
Chakwera fired experience
Chakwera is currently having serious problems on how to campaign. In the 2014 Campaign, Chakwera was surrounded by very experienced and articulate politicians. Take the example of Daniel Mlomo.
Daniel Mlomo was one regional governor who could connect with the people. Chakwera doesn’t have anyone so articulate to connect with the people in this campaign.
Chakwera failed to understand that MCP has its own politics. It takes people who understand that grassroots politics in order to campaign effectively. It’s painful to say Chakwera is mounting a very weak campaign in this Election.
MCP does not have a clear campaign strategy done by people who understand MCP politics. It is instead PP people who are advising Chakwera on how to campaign. For example, the director of strategy is Zikhale Ng’oma.
Chakwera fired critical people
Chakwera fired the whole chain of all able-minded people because he thought they were a threat.
He kicked out and frustrated Dr Moses Khombe, Daniel Mlomo, Chatinkha, Gustav Kaliwo, Felix Jumbe, Juliana Lunguzi and Jessie Kabwila. This was the New MCP of critical minds and political acclaim.
We can learn two things from Chakwera firing this political generation. First, Chakwera is suffering from acute inferiority complex. People who suffer inferiority complex feel threatened when surrounded by other people with higher potential.
Secondly, Chakwera is a dictator. He cannot stand people who question him or ask critical questions. In fact, people become dictators when they feel insecure in their power positions because they inwardly know they are where they are not supposed to be.
The Centre Can Not Hold
Recently, an MCP research team has produced a report which conclusively says MCP has lost control of Central Region. Chakwera and his immediate politburo have this report.
One more reason why MCP has lost control of their own Central Region is because of the John Tembo factor. You cannot imagine Malawi Congress Party without John Tembo.
It is John Tembo who has led and kept the party for a long time after Kamuzu Banda. He is old but still very influential. Most people in MCP still go to Tembo for advice.
Currently, Tembo is very disappointed with Chakwera’s leadership.
Chakwera is at the same time working very hard to delete the history of Tembo in MCP. For example, Chakwera manoeuvred very fast during the primary elections to make sure that John Tembo junior lost primary elections for Dedza South Constituency.
Chakwera’s MCP went further to cheat during the primaries for Nancy Tembo (who is daughter in law to JZU) to lose the Primaries. She too lost.
Chakwera has worked really hard to permanently delete John Tembo and his family from MCP history because he fears that Tembo will anoint someone else to replace Chakwera.
Ironically, it was the decision of John Tembo to bring in Chakwera in 2013. Tembo sent Chatinkha to speak to Chakwera while Khombe introduced Chakwera to Chewa Chiefs and central region grassroots.
These are the people that Chakwera now hates today. Chakwera has done with Tembo what Saulos Chilima has done with Peter Mutharika– rebelling against your own political godfather.
Chakwera erred on Mia
Chakwera allowed himself to be bought by Mia at K200 million. People are keeping the contract they signed.
Up to date, most Chewa chiefs and other party loyalists are angry that Chakwera sold MCP to a stranger. They have never forgiven Chakwera. Even Gawa Undi does not like Chakwera either.
The connection to Mia is costing MCP big time. Mia is on the American Terrorist Watch List because he has been drawing his funding from terrorist organisations.
When Chakwera went to the US (where he has a lot of religious connections), he received a lot of commitments for financial support particularly from the baptist churches.
But CIA sources warned the American religious networks that MCP has terrorist connections via Sidik Mia and “it is not in the interest of American people to fund terrorism albeit indirectly,” so went round the word. Up to now, Chakwera is waiting for funding that will never come and he doesn’t know why. MCP is slowly being blacklisted as a Terrorist Connected Organization.
What Chakwera doesn’t know is that Mia is playing his own game in a far more sophisticated manner led by Abida Mia as the operations manager. Mia is doing his own things with his own clandestine groups unknown to Chakwera.
DPP penetration in the Centre
For a long time MCP supporters have been told the Centre is the base of MCP. Short memory does not allow them to think that DPP penetrated the Centre in 2009.
In this 2019 Election, DPP has capitalised on Chakwera’s weaknesses, the divisions and frustrations Chakwera has created to penetrate into the MCP hinterland.
DPP has been working underground with most of the people that Chakwera sidelined to reach out to the grassroots in the Centre.
There is now a quiet unanimous agreement in many grassroots MCP people to reject Chakwera because he is a bad leader and that he is killing their Malawi Congress Party.
As a result, many people are persuaded by their own MCP people to vote for APM to block Chakwera from ascending to power so that they can remove him after elections. Many MCP leaders have bought this strategy because it is the only way for rebuilding MCP after elections.
This is called politics, real politics.