APM will win polls, says EIU


President Peter Mutharika and the DPP will win the May elections, according to London think-tank Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) in its latest Malawi Country Report dated March 2019.

This is the 8th successive prediction the global research institution has made since July 2016 — all of them tipping Mutharika and the DPP to win the election.

In the latest research report, EIU says Mutharika will secure re-election in May as there is no serious threat to him.

“We expect Mr Mutharika to be re-elected as president as there is no serious threat to him from any other candidate,” concludes EIU.

The think-tank adds that DPP will remain the “the largest party” in Parliament and will “form the next government.”

Besides Mutharika’s economic and development delivery record, the EIU says Lazarus Chakwera, Saulos  Chilima and Joyce Banda and their parties pose no serious challenge to Mutharika and the DPP.

In all its 7 previous predictions, EIU has cited lack of policy alternative and internal divisions as factors that will contribute to Lazurus Chakwera and MCP’s loss in the elections.

In the latest report, EIU reiterates the continuing divisions in MCP, saying “chronic infighting continues to plague” the party.

Peter Mutharika

APM being inaugurated

Analysts point out that todate, Chakwera has made no known effort to mend fences with the old guards who he banished from the party .

These officials were the spirit of the MCP and a strong link between the party and the grassroots in its stronghold.

Their disenchantment has worsned after Joyce Banda’s People’s Party officials invaded MCP and grabbed nearly half of the executive positions.

Chakwera has sought to build up his chances by striking an electoral alliance with Joyce Banda. But going by the EIU report, Chakwera may have worsened his chances further with this alliance.

It says Joyce Banda’s era was made “notorious by rampant corruption”. Referring to the failed alliance between UTM and PP, the EIU suggests any party’s alliance with Joyce Banda and PP “is based more on political expedency than strategy” and would result into a loss at the election.

It further says Saulos Chilima does not present “a serious electoral challenge”. EIU said the same thing of Chilima in its January 2019 report, citing the undeveloped presence of his UTM among the reasons.

In case the opposition decide to resort to tricks that stir unrest and protests against the Mutharika government, this will not work, according to the EIU.

“Democratic processes in Malawi are well-established, and attempts to intensify unrest to undermine the country’s underlying stability or the government’s hold on power are unlikely,” it reads.

 EIU says APM will win 8 times

MARCH 2019

EIU says President Mutharika and the DPP will win the May election because “there is no serious to him from any other candidate”.

It says Chakwera will lose because the divisions he stirred in MCP still plague the party, Joyce Banda is corrupt and Chilima is no electoral threat.


EIU says President Mutharika and the DPP will win the election.

EIU cited the following as some of the reasons:

– MCP remains weak since the eviction of prominent members that opposed Chakwera’s dictatorial leadership

– The undeveloped presence of UTM

– Lack of opposition alliance


EIU says President Mutharika and the DPP will win the election because:

– He has restored confidence in the economy

– Delivered on development program

– Opposition is divided

JUNE 2018

EIU says President Peter Mutharika will win the 2019 elections.

EIU cites some of these:

— APM’s delivery on his robust development programme

–Continued growth in the economy

–Divisions in the opposition

–Joyce Banda does not present a serious electoral challenge


EIU predicts that President Peter Mutharika will win the 2019 election.

EIU a number of reasons including:

–APM’s delivery on his robust development programme

–Continued growth in the economy

–Divisions in the Opposition

MARCH 2017

EIU predicts that President Peter Mutharika will win the elections due in 2019.

EIU says Mutharika will stay in power:

— Because of robust delivery on his development programmes

— For keeping the country stable

— For restoring confidence in the economy battered by the Joyce Banda administration

— Because his rivals are too divided to mount an effective challenge.

—  Because opposition do not offer any robust agenda for development as compared to DPP

MARCH 2016

EIU says Mutharika will win:

–Because he offers sound strategy for national development.

–Because “Despite vocal attacks on the government of President Mutharika”, APM’s closest challenger Lazarus Chakwera “struggles to offer any viable policy alternative.

JULY 2016

EIU says Mutharika will win because:

–Chakwera has tampered with his party’s policy making body, the National Executive Committee, resulting in deep divisions in the party

–Chakwera does not offer viable policy alternative for the development of the country



  1. The arguments are baseless and seems to be thought from one institution that does not fully understand the country’s political landscape. Anyway, you are entitled to your opinion whoever you are